An analysis of the four quarter-finals in the 2024 UEFA Champions League.
Can the holders Manchester City beat record-holders Real Madrid and go on to retan their title?
Or will Kylian Mbappe's Paris Saint-Germain or their Premier League rivals Arsenal go on to capture their first CL crown at Wembley in June?
Arsenal v Bayern Munich.
The Bavarians will not win the Bundesliga this season for the first time in over ten years but they have a track record of six Champions League titles. In contrast, their opponents are challenging for the EPL but have never claimed this European crown.
Both teams topped their respective groups with Bayern going unbeaten against the likes of Manchester United.
Arsenal lost once and did so again in the Round of 16, versus Porto, before edging out the Portuguese on spot-kicks before an ecstatic Emirates crowd.
Bayern also lost their first encounter, with Lazio. only to recover comprehensively in the second leg at the Allianz helped by a double from Harry Kane.
And the matchup with Kane is one of the more intriguing factors in this tie, particularly when they meet in London.
Kane is joint top-scorer in the UCL as well as racking up 31 in the Bundesliga, and it is his striking ability that could make the difference.
Arsenal do not have an equivalent frontman although the talent of Odegaard, Martinelli, and Saka in midfield plus the sometimes opportunism of Kai Havertz could compensate.
Despite their relative underperformance in the league under Thomas Tuchel, the Bavarians can field both experience (Muller, Neuer, and Kimmich) and undoubted attacking talent (Coman, Gnabry, Sane, and Alphonso Davies) to complement Kane.
The challenge for Mikel Arteta is to balance this European campaign with their Premier League exploits while Tuchel (who seems very likely to be departing in the summer) could, subtly, put more emphasis on the Champions League.
With Bayern having the advantage of playing the second leg at an atmospheric Arena they might just shade this one.
Atletico Madrid v Borussia Dortmund.
These two are considered the outsiders of the eight teams remaining in the UCL.
Atletico have had a mixed time in La Liga and now lie in fifth and well behind the leaders, Real Madrid, while Dortmund are also far adrift of leaders Bayer Leverkusen in Germany.
But both have a solid history of performance in Europe having appeared in five finals between them though only Dortmund have claimed the title.
Diego Simeone’s side topped their group before surprising many by edging out Inter on penalties before nearly 70,000 at the Metropolitano.
Whereas Dortmund negotiated a much tougher group, being alongside PSG, AC Milan, and Newcastle, but then a potentially easier Round of 16 challenge against PSV Eindhoven.
The Spaniards can put together an experienced lineup with names such as Azpilicueta, Koke, Saul, Llorente, and striker Alvaro Morata but their trump card could be the charismatic driving force of coach Simeone who has now been in charge for an incredible twelve years.
Edin Terzic’s Dortmund don’t look like the powerhouse of past campaigns though they can call on Reus, Sancho, Hummels, and AFCON winner Sebastien Haller.
They will also have the ‘Yellow Wall’ to help them in the second leg.
But the odds favour still Atletico in what is likely to be a tight contest.
Real Madrid v Manchester City.
In terms of current and past form this could well have been the final but it means one of these heavyweights will be going out early.
Los Blancos are closing in on their 36th La Liga title while City are favoured to clinch an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League.
They both go into this quarter-final as unbeaten teams having perfect records in their respective groups though City would have considerably less trouble eliminating Copenhagen in Round 16 than RM did in putting out RB Leipzig.
Carlo Ancelotti has clearly enhanced a burgeoning talent in England’s Jude Bellingham alongside Camavinga, Valverde, Tchouameni and the peerless Toni Kroos.
That midfield often sets up the dynamic Brazilians Rodrygo and Vinicius Junior to create, and take, the chances.
But, in a kind of parallel with Arsenal, they no longer have Benzema (and not yet Mbappe or Endrick) to score the goals.
Whereas City can call on, arguably, three of the best current players in the EPL in Haaland, De Bruyne, and Foden.
The tall Norwegian has added another dimension to Pep Guardiola’s attack and he is a strong contender to be Champions League top scorer.
Could he be the difference?
Having met in the last two semi-finals, with the score being one tie each, this will be a sort of decider.
On balance City look to have the edge, although they are in a close league battle and in an FA Cup semi-final, and they do have the slight advantage of playing the second leg at the Etihad.
Pep Guardiola finally clinched this title in 2023 and his team might well move on to Wembley in June.
Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona.
Could this be Kylian Mbappe’s swan song at PSG that ends with a unique UCL crown for the Parisians?
The odds are not in his favour and the chances are he will have to wait for his opportunity at Real Madrid before he completes his palmares.
Having said that Luis Enrique's side are favoured to beat Barcelona in this tie though they are not expected to get much further.
As is usual, PSG are well clear in their domestic league as well as likely to pick up another Coupe de France hence they can focus, to an extent, on the UCL.
Of course this has happened before, especially when they could put together a team including superstars Messi, Neymar, and Mbappe.
But even that lineup couldn’t manage to claim a maiden title.
Their opponents are also not considered to be in optimum shape with Barca coach, Xavi, leaving at the end of the season.
However they can call on a range of talent including the likes of Gavi, Pedri, Raphinha, Joao Felix, and the normally prolific Robert Lewandowski.
Last time out PSG scored two wins against Real Sociedad while Barca eliminated a strong Napoli side.
So in a way both teams will fancy their chances of making the semis.
Maybe it will take one electric burst from Kylian Mbappe to decide the outcome in favour of Paris.
Analysis - John Bethell
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